American Republic Online

The Democrats have won the House, and are poised to win the Senate. So what does this mean for us common folk? Not much. Here’s why: First of all, Bush is still President, and will be for two more years. Second, the majority is not that large. Of course, we will hear the word “mandate” until we’re ready to throw up, but it doesn’t change the fact that almost half of both houses are Republican. (Note: this is the same thing Democrats said after Bush won in 2004 and Republicans were screaming “mandate.”) The difference here is that the power is divided.

Democrats have two things they need to do: prepare for 2008, and use their new found  power.  They have to appeal to their supporters (which are becoming more and more interest group based), and have a clear agenda.  That is they need to develop those central tenants that can rally the most support (like the Republicans had done successfully for many years).  These "values" are emerging as economic "fairness," public health, and an idealistic foreign policy.  In order to have a chance in 2008, they need to attempt to pass legislation that appeals to their support.  However, as discussed above, there is little chance that it will pass.  

For instance, right now the Democrats are already talking about raising the minimum wage.  They can do one of two things.  First, they can actually attempt to pass reform. But it will involve deals with Republicans, either through a lower actual raise or other concessions, and the final bill will be no where near what their supporters want.  In contrast, they can advocate sweeping reform, with no compromise.  The Republicans will act predictably and oppose it, not to mention the President still has veto power, and there is not enough support to override that veto.  Thus, it won't happen.  However, it will solidify their base, and increase the likelihood of victory in 2008 (e.g. "We tried to pass reform, but they opposed it…"). 

This is most likely what we will see over the coming two years.  A lot of words, but no action. Congress will be gridlocked for the next two years.  Personally, your editor prefers this, as it typically leads to less government spending and growth, but that's another discussion.  In the meantime, look for a lot of posturing and rhetoric, but no real happenings.

Don't worry; we have other things to occupy the coming years: Britney is filing for divorce from her back-up dancer husband.