American Republic Online

President Bush gave a national address last week in which he outlined his new strategy for Iraq.  It is being called a troop "surge."  Democrats are howling.  Senator Clinton says Bush would “continue to take us down the wrong road, only faster” and Senator Bidon wants to make sure the President realizes "he's on his own."  Republicans are getting huffy too, as the general public has turned against the war, and it won't make 2008 easier for them.

The Economist has a review of this decision.  It is an interesting analysis, but I disagree.  Why?  Well, we must first understand the situation.  Here is my take on the current state of Iraq: right now the US is sitting on the sidelines as Iran is shaping Iraq into a predominately Shiite nation, that will be predisposed to Iranian influence.  The Sunnis have recognized the US's impotence, and are fighting to maintain some power.  Don't think so?  Less than a year ago the Sunni leadership sold out Al-Zarqawi.  They were ready to participate in the political process, and this was the cue.  Then something happened.  Iran played all their cards.  Remember Hezbolah and Israel's skirmish this fall?  That was no accident.  Consider this: Iran is now pretty much the premier state in the Middle East now.  Everyone over there realizes this.  And the US now has little power in shaping the future of Iraq.  Unless…

Unless we can demonstrate we still have some credibility as a military force by securing Baghdad.  Now, I am no military strategist, but I do know this: Bush is not a madman, nor does he lightly send more troops to the front lines.  He's at a point where he has two options in Iraq: essentially give it over to Iran, or try to reassert the US into the process.  He has chosen the later, and one of two things will result.  First, nothing.  That is, Baghdad is not  secured, and the insurgency continues.  Second, the military accomplishes their new mission, at least in part.  If this happens, the US is back in it; they'll have shown demonstrably that tey can still make a difference.  It won't turn the tide, but it can change the tone.  This, I believe, is the why behind Bush's decision.  On the one hand, things won't necessarily get any worse, but there's a chance they may get better.  

To be clear, I'm not sure I agree with the decision.  However, what I am sure of is that I'm glad I'm not the one making the decision.

That's my take on it.  Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go watch American Idol.