American Republic Online

Osama Bin Laden knows America. He knows us perhaps better than we know ourselves. Granted, he does not know everything, but he knows enough for his purposes. That is, he knows, and has known, what we are only beginning to see: Americans no longer have the stomach for war. Indeed, he took this very fact into account as part of his pre-9/11 planning. Let’s take a look back:

In order to understand where we are, we must understand how we got here. In other words, how did we come to 9/11, and then end up in a war of attrition/insurgency. 9/11 and the war in Iraq are not unrelated, nor were they happenstance. In fact, they are a part of Bin Laden’s larger plan.

Al Qaeda was formed in the wake of the Soviet-Afghani conflict. The main goal of the organization being to re-establish the Caliphate. That is, a political and religious leader over the Islamic world. Having established this, to then extend power to all lands formerly under the control of Isalm, and even the world. But how to accomplish this goal?
In 1997, Bin Laden was interviewed by journalist Peter Arnett. In the course of the interview, Bin Laden revealed his conclusion regarding American military and will:

“We learned from those who fought [in Somalia] that they were surprised to see the low spiritual morale of the American fighters in comparison with the experience they had with the Russian fighters. The Americans ran away from those fighters who fought and killed them, while the latter were still there. If the U.S. still thinks and brags that it still has this kind of power even after all these successive defeats in Vietnam, Beirut, Aden, and Somalia, then let them go back to those who are awaiting its return.”

Bin Laden stated what was the then-current Middle Eastern view held of the U.S.: that we run in the face of pressure. Or, more specifically, we cannot stand the loss of lives, no matter the cause.

This conclusion was not reached carelessly. He points out his supporting facts: “Vietnam, Beirut, Aden, and Somalia,” (some believe these responses led to the bombing of the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, thinking that if enough Americans were killed they would leave). Up to that point, we had proven that once Americans started dying, we wanted out. However, wishing to prove his theory, he tested it.

Consider the bombings of the U.S. embassies in Africa and of the U.S.S. Cole in Yemen. What was the response? President Clinton said “If, as it now appears, this was an act of terrorism, it was a despicable and cowardly act. We will find out who was responsible and hold them accountable.” And then initiated Operation Infinite Reach in response, where missles were fired into the wilderness. Bin Laden mocked this response, and the 9/11 Commission concluded that “Bin Ladin wanted the United States to attack, and if it did not he would launch something bigger.” Bin Laden was goading us into attacking.

You see, al Qaeda’s strategy was to provoke us to invade in the Middle East. Having acheived that, they also knew that we would not be able to handle the conflict awaiting us and would therefore not stay long, but by exiting we would leave chaos and animosity, perfect ingredients to stir into the call for the reestablishment of the Caliphate.

Al-Zawahiri explains the steps quite clearly in his letter to al-Zarqawi:

1. Expel Americans from Iraq.

2. Establish an Islamic Athority in Iraq.

3. Extend the jihad wave into sourrounding secular countries.

4. Initiate a clash with Israel.

Our inability to stomach an insurgent war was assumed by al Qaeda 10 years ago. They factored this into their long-term plan.

And what has been our response?� True, we were united for quite a while, but no longer.� Our own Congress recently voted for a nonbinding resolution against the President’s surge, and are proposing an exit date of March 2008.

Establishing a Caliphate in Iraq is doubtful.� Nonetheless, Bin Laden has certainly proven that he knows the strength of our will.� The question now is whether we can re-gain it, especially in the face of a new attack on our shores.

(See Stratfor for a much better review/analysis.)